Economic Uncertainty Keeps Salary Increases at 3.5% Through 2027, Survey Finds

Amid moderate economic growth and lingering inflationary pressures, companies are adopting a conservative stance on salary adjustments. According to a recent survey, salary increase budgets are expected to remain at 3.5% through 2027—a level that, while representing some stability, falls short of the expectations of many workers seeking to recover purchasing power lost in recent years.

The decision to hold back increases is not random. It reflects a cautious reading of the macroeconomic environment, with interest rates still high and uncertainties about demand. For HR departments, this means that compensation management will need to become more strategic, prioritizing performance and critical skills over across-the-board raises. Experts point out that, in this context, transparency in pay policies and clear communication about promotion criteria become important differentiators for retaining talent.

Another trend gaining traction is linking executive variable pay to metrics related to AI adoption and concrete workforce outcomes, such as productivity and well-being. This signals a shift in how companies measure success: it is no longer enough to meet short-term financial targets; it is necessary to demonstrate that technology is being used to improve work and generate sustainable value.

For professionals seeking employment or negotiating salaries, the scenario demands preparation. With tight budgets, companies tend to be more selective, offering packages that combine fixed salary with benefits and bonuses tied to goals. Skills in areas such as data analysis, AI, and change management can be bargaining chips for securing above-average increases, even in a constrained environment.

Finally, the survey reinforces that uncertainty is not synonymous with stagnation. Organizations that manage to align their compensation strategy with business objectives and the new demands of the labor market will be better positioned to attract and retain the talent they need. For workers, the recommendation is to invest in continuous upskilling and stay attuned to the metrics that companies are beginning to value, as they will define growth opportunities in the coming years.